Senin, 07 Juli 2014

[C458.Ebook] PDF Ebook Remedial English, by Evan Smith, Evan Smith

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Remedial English, by Evan Smith, Evan Smith

  • Sales Rank: #2346514 in Books
  • Published on: 1998-01
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 7.75" h x 5.25" w x .25" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 72 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Love this play!
By Colton James Thompson
I absolutely love this play! It is very simple and can be easily adapted to any stage. If you are looking for something simple to put on that doesn't have a very big cast this is the play to do! It is mostly made for older teens and adults however so keep that in mind.

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[L528.Ebook] Ebook The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of Genius, by Nancy C. Andreasen

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The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of Genius, by Nancy C. Andreasen

Where does the unique originality we call “creativity” come from? Michelangelo was a stonecutter’s son, and Shakespeare was the son of a middle-class businessman. What causes some people to soar free of their limited lives and make astonishingly creative contributions?

In her elegant, fascinating tour of creativity and the brain, Nancy Andreasen, professor of psychiatry at the University of Iowa and the winner of the National Medal of Science, shows us that creativity is not the same as intelligence nor the same as skill. Rather, we discover, the essence of creativity is to shape the materials of life in new and unexpected ways.

Andreasen explores how the human brain achieves creative breakthroughs—in art, literature, music, and science—the role of patron or mentors, the possession of an omnivorous vision, the value of not having a “standard education,” and the question of “genius and insanity.”

The author shows is what extraordinary creators such as Mozart, Henri Poincaré, and Coleridge, said about creating and how they reflect special qualities of creative people and the creative process. She describes her fascinating interview with the playwright Neil Simon in which he discussed how his mind works. Andreasen’s studies of participants in the Iowa Writer’s Workshop suggest that creativity may be inherited and sometimes associated with mental disorders, through neither is necessary for creativity to flourish.

The author proposes that creativity can and should be encouraged and offers advice to nurture it in both children and adults

  • Sales Rank: #613259 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2011-02-22
  • Released on: 2011-02-22
  • Format: Kindle eBook

From Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. How does one define extraordinary creativity? Is creative genius a product of nature or nurture? And can those of us who are less creative enhance the creative capacity in ourselves and others? Andreasen (The Broken Brain), editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Psychiatric Association, brings neuroscience to bear in providing insight and expert analysis of the connections between extraordinary creativity, mental illness, intelligence and the social environment. The complex subject matter is punctuated with intriguing research, such as Andreasen's Iowa Writer's Workshop study examining the relationship between creativity and psychopathology; a study of London taxi drivers showing that their need for extensive memory of the city leads to a larger hippocampus; and a study of members of symphony orchestras that found increased gray matter in Broca's area. These studies lead Andreasen to conclude that "extraordinary creativity" is the result of neural processes that "differ qualitatively as well as quantitatively" from those of other people. The author's passion and admiration for creative genius and the arts—not surprising given her Ph.D. in Renaissance English literature—is evidenced in her exploration of such great minds as Mozart, da Vinci, Michelangelo and Tchaikovsky. And quotations from introspective accounts by mathematician Henri Poincaré, chemist Friedrich Kekulé, Stephen Spender and Neil Simon vividly describe mental activities that are anything but ordinary. Andreasen leaves us with hope that the potential exists to enhance the creative capacity in our children and in ourselves. Photos and illus. (Nov.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Scientific American
What is the nature of creativity? What conditions foster it? What is going on inside the brain of a Mozart or a Shakespeare during the creative process? And is there a relation between creativity and mental illness, as often posited? Science thus far has produced only sketchy answers to these fascinating questions. The Creating Brain is a worthwhile inquiry into the subject and a reminder of how little is known.

Nancy C. Andreasen, a psychiatrist and neuroscientist at the University of Iowa who started her career as a Renaissance English scholar, argues that some characteristics of creative people—such as openness to new experiences and sensitivity to sensory inputs—may also make them more prone to mental and emotional problems. Her study of Iowa Writers Workshop participants shows a correlation between mood disorders and creativity, and other scientists have found similar tendencies in studies of literary and artistic types. Such research, however, has not shown a suspected link between artistic creativity and schizophrenic symptoms. Andreasen, who tends to draw conclusions primarily from her own work, notes that she is performing a study to see if any such tendency exists among especially creative scientists.

Despite the paucity of evidence, Andreasen suggests that creativity arises largely from the "association cortex"—parts of the frontal, parietal and temporal lobes that integrate sensory and other information. This idea, however, has just begun to be researched; Andreasen, again, relies heavily on her own study, this one done with positron-emission tomography (PET) scans of people’s brains during free association.

In pondering the topic of genius, Andreasen points out that certain historical times and places have produced a bounty of brilliance. Among these "cradles of creativity" she lists ancient Athens, Renaissance Florence and mid- to late 19th-century Paris. Her list of factors spurring creative thought in such places is plausible if unsurprising: intellectual freedom, open competition, a critical mass of creative people, the presence of mentors and patrons, and some degree of economic prosperity.

Andreasen also provides tips for boosting creativity. For adults, she proposes exercises such as making close observations of a chosen item or imagining oneself to be someplace or someone else. Her suggestions for kids are mainly common sense, including less television exposure and more music and outdoor activity. The Creating Brain contains much of interest, even if breakthroughs lie mostly in the future.

Kenneth Silber

Review
“Our leading authority on creativity reveals herself with this splendid book as one of the most valuably creative persons of our time.”--
Kurt Vonnegut


(Kurt Vonnegut 2005-08-01)

"I've been a novelist for 37 years and suddenly I understand myself better. Nancy Andreasen's The Creating Brain is a fascinating journey in to the nature and secrets of the creative brain. The sections on Michelangelo and Leonardo da Vinci are amazing, and the concluding exercises could be life changing."--David Morrell, New York Times bestselling author of The Brotherhood of the Rose  and Creepers
 
 
(David Morrell 2005-08-01)

“Drawing on her expertise as a scientist, physician, and scholar of literature, Nancy Andreasen gives a clear, readable, synoptic account of current knowledge in human creativity.”--Howard Gardner, Hobbs Professor of Education and Cognition, Harvard Graduate School of Education


(Howard Gardner 2005-08-01)

"Neuroscientists, until recently, shied away from the big questions--such as 'what is consciousness,' 'what is abstract thinking,' or (the topic of this book) 'what is creativity'--as being empirically unapproachable. Nancy Andreasen's book comes as a welcome antidote to this inherent conservatism and shows us how creativity can be approached scientifically. In a market flooded with 'new age' books on creativity, Dr. Andreasen's meticulously researched contribution comes as a breath of fresh air."--V.S. Ramachandran, MD, Director of the Center for Brain and Cognition at the University of California-San Diego, and author of A Brief Tour of Human Consciousness
(V.S. Ramachandran 2005-08-01)

"An expert analysis of the connections between extraordinary creativity, mental illness, intelligence and the social environment. The complex subject matter is punctuated with intriguing research. . . . Andreasen leaves us with hope that the potential exists to enhance the creative capacity in our children and in ourselves."--Publishers Weekly

 

 



(Publishers Weekly 2005-09-12)

"This splendid, quick read should be a compulsory assignment for those students of the humanities who think themselves irrevocably bored with biology of any sort, including what they will find to be the fascinating links to the human brain's most powerful cultural tool, the capacity for extraordinary creativity. . . . I highly recommend it."--Floyd Bloom, professor emeritus of neuropharmacology, The Scripps Research Institute and former editor-in-chief of Science   (Floyd E. Bloom 2005-09-01)

"Andreasen writes with clarity and ease, interspersing personal and scientific opinion. She makes wonderful connections between the arts and sciences, which surely spring from her background in literature. And she provides a succinct overview of diverse fields of investigation, as well as providing a perspective that reaches beyond the usual approaches to understanding the relationship between creativity and the brain."--Nature    (Mark Lythgoe Nature 2005-11-10)

"Ahead of the curve. . . . Ms. Andreasen is lucid in arguing that with creativity—as with most human traits—a strict opposition between nature and nurture is too simplistic. . . . Ms. Andreasen's book describes the first steps in what should be a long and fascinating effort to understand true creative genius."—Christopher F. Chabris, Wall Street Journal   (Christopher F. Chabris Wall Street Journal 2005-12-30)

"As if she were speaking with you at dinner, she explores the earliest record of human creativity . . . The text cleverly uses the autobiographical account of a series of renowned artists, scientists, and writers to illustrate their special insights into their own creative process. . . . Grandmotherly advice from Dr. Andreasen, down to the choice of bedtime reading to the children, is a warm and unique end to a book on the neurobiology of creativity."--American Journal of Psychiatry   (American Journal of Psychiatry 2006-01-01)

"Readers familiar with Dr. Andreasen's previous works. . . will recognize her personal, conversational narrative and the breadth of her knowledge."--Sandra Patterson, American Journal of Psychiatry (Sandra Patterson American Journal of Psychiatry 2006-01-01)

"This is fascinating reading (Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi Washington Post Book World 2006-02-26)

Most helpful customer reviews

44 of 48 people found the following review helpful.
A first-order approximation to a neuroscience of creativity
By Dr. Lee D. Carlson
It is accurate to say that there has been more creative energy released in the last twenty-five years than any than the last twenty-five hundred. This is due not only to the number of people that are actually alive now, but also to the vast amount of knowledge that is readily available. Modern technology is responsible for the availability of this knowledge, and the technology itself was the result of human creativity and ingenuity. In addition, creative people can now communicate in ways they could not before, thanks to the rise of the Internet. Further, innovation has been strongly encouraged, not primarily by educational institutions and hierarchies, but by the business community. This is an interesting development, and one that shows every indication of continuing. The academy, which used to be considered a refugee camp for the creative mind, is no longer a place where one can pursue and develop original ideas without extreme difficulty.

In this highly interesting book, the author acknowledges that the environment is important in nurturing creativity, but she also wants to understand what mechanisms in the brain are responsible for it. An understanding of these mechanisms is extremely important, for it could point the way to better methods of enhancing creativity, either by using pharmaceuticals, with techniques from genetic engineering, or possibly with radical changes in the environment. The author is a neuroscientist, and not a philosopher, and so her analysis is based more on what is observed in the laboratory, and not mere speculations from the armchair. Her goal is to obtain a neuroscience of creativity, which considering the paucity of research in this area, is a goal that one hopes she (and other researchers) will succeed in reaching.

One of the first issues that the author addresses in the book is the relation (if any) between intelligence and creativity. Reviewing the history of the study between these two notions, and noting creative people have been equated with "geniuses", she concludes that, in general, one can conclude that a certain level of intelligence is needed to make original contributions, one needs another faculty of the brain in order to do so. It is not clear from this discussion whether she believes that this entails a modular view of the brain, i.e. one in which the brain consists of specialized modules for various tasks, one of these modules being for tasks requiring creativity.

The author is also careful to note that originality, creativity, or novelty are concepts that are dependent on the context in which ideas arise and in the perceived utility of these ideas. In this regard, she discusses the work of the psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, who believed in the existence of "true creativity". As summarized by the author, Csikszentmihalyi held that creativity should be understood in terms of the relationship between a `domain', which is a particular area of knowledge; a `field' that is a collection of experts in the domain, and a `person' who actually introduces novel ideas into the domain under the auspices of the field. Motivated by these considerations, the author holds that creativity must involve originality, utility, and must lead to product of some kind. These requirements, at least on the surface, are reasonable, but there are difficulties that arise when one attempts to check them for a particular idea or concept. One issue that immediately arises in this regard is attempting to check whether indeed the concept or creation is indeed novel, or whether it was actually contained in prior ideas or creations. The issue of whether an idea was actually contained in prior ones comes up quite frequently in the field of automated mathematical discovery, which seeks to emulate, in a machine, human creative mathematical ability. Because of the deductive nature of mathematics, the progression of ideas must follow logically from those in prior ones, i.e. in the premises. But the "new" ideas must be different in some sense from the ones that they are logically derived from. It can be become very debatable whether these ideas were indeed original, or whether they were merely "contained in the premises."

The book would not be complete of course if the author did not discuss in detail her ideas on the neuroscience behind creativity. For the general reader, she includes some elementary discussion on brain anatomy as a warm-up. In her brief treatment of the functions of the brain she mentions the current debate as to the executive functions of the brain, i.e. whether there is a central "executive" in the brain that decides what changes are to occur. As an alternative to a central authority, the author mentions the view of the brain as being a `self-organizing' system. This is currently a popular view of the brain among physicists, and for the author it helps to explain what she calls "ordinary creativity." However, the author clearly believes that something else is needed to explain "extraordinary" creativity: unconscious processes such as the process of `free association.' The author refers to her experimental work on using neuroimaging technology to find out which areas of the brain are active during free association. Her work is also dependent on the notion of `episodic memory', which she characterizes as memory that is linked to the personal experiences of the individual. Her neuroimaging experiments indicated that the association cortex was active when the subject was engaging in random unconscious free association. She is careful to admit though that a lot more research is needed to find the neural basis behind extraordinary creativity, but her suspicion is that it involves making links between objects or concepts that were not linked before. These associative links "run wild" and create new connections, resulting in a disorganized mental state. This motivates her to study the connection between creativity and insanity, a topic that she also discusses at some length in the book, along with hints and exercises that individuals can use to enhance their creativity.

32 of 34 people found the following review helpful.
A Tour of Creativity and the Mind
By STEPHEN PLETKO
+++++

QUESTION: What do Neil Simon (playwright), Mozart (music composer), and Friedrich Kekule (organic chemist) have in common?

ANSWER: Each was considered to be a creative genius.

This slim book by Dr. Nancy Andreasen attempts to explain how the above people and those like them create great works of art and come up with original ideas in the sciences. Does their creative genius reside in their neuroanatomy?

Andreasen explains more about her book:

"[My] book is primarily about extraordinary creativity. I wanted to write about how extremely gifted people have created things that have made our lives, our society, and our civilization richer and more beautiful."

Each of this book's six chapters is divided into subsections. Below I will give the title of the chapter (in upper case) and then give the titles of each subsection so as to give an overview of the entire book:

(1) THE NATURE OF CREATIVITY

The evolution of concepts of creativity; Creativity vs intelligence; Creativity and society: who decides?; What is creativity.

(2) UNDERSTANDING THE CREATIVE PERSON AND THE CREATIVE PROCSS

The scientific study of creativity; The creative person; The creative process; The case-study method and introspective descriptions of the creative process; Five introspective accounts (written by five people who represent extraordinary creativity).

(3) HOW DOES THE BRAIN CREATE?

Creativity and the brain; How does the brain think?; A primer of brain anatomy; The complexity of brain networks; The human brain as a self-organizing system; What is human thought?; Unconscious thought; The neural basis of extraordinary creativity.

(4) GENIUS AND INSANITY

Early explorations of genius and insanity: the anecdotal era; Improving diagnostic precision: the quantitative era; Is there a connection between creativity and schizophrenia?; Mental illness, creativity, and the brain; What are the effects of treating mental illness in creative people?

(5) WHAT CREATES THE CREATIVE BRAIN?

The role of nurture; Renaissance Florence as a Lab for the case study of nature and nurture (note that Andreasen's PhD is in Renaissance Literature); What kind of environment nurtures Creativity?; The role of nature: innate gifts and hereditary factors; Nature vs nurture: What creates the creative brain?

(6) BUILDING BETTER BRAINS

What is brain plasticity?; Plasticity and the creative brain; Ordinary creativity and extraordinary creativity; (Creative enhancing) mental exercises for adults; Tips for teaching tots; The creating brain: Quo Vadis.

If you peruse the above chapter subsections, you will find that the actual amount of neuroscience presented in this book is minimal. This is actually justified since the amount of research in this area is slim. What Andreasen does is actually concentrate on the mind rather than to analyze only the brain in order to understand creativity.

This book contains almost 35 black and white photos and illustrations, most of which I found interesting.

Don't worry! This book is easy to read. You don't have to have a PhD to understand it.

There are a few problems with this book. I will state three that I consider major ones:

(i) This book's title is "The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of [Creative] Genius." As explained above, this book deals more with the mind than with the brain. As well, the neuroscience in this book is minimal. (Some people may get angry at this expecting the entire book to be about the brain and neuroscience. Personally, I was not angry but surprised.) I think a more accurate title would have been: "The Creating Mind: With Some Neuroscience Explaining Creative Genius."

(ii) The preface made me wince. Andreasen begins it with "When I was a kindergartener, I was IQ-tested and declared a genius." She then goes on and briefly describes her life with this label. Why?

(iii) The author attempts to imply that Sir Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein suffered from mental illness. Maybe she's justified in saying this since she has a degree in psychiatry. However, one of my degrees is in psychology and I would say that she is reading too much into Newton's and Einstein's idiosyncrasies.

Finally, I had a difficult time deciding how to rate this book. I decided I would rate this book on the more accurate title that I mentioned in (i) above. Some people might disagree with me on doing this but I feel the information presented in this book is important to know with respect to creativity.

In conclusion, despite some problems, I feel that this book does an adequate job in explaining extraordinary creativity.

(2005; preface; 6 chapters; main narrative 180 pages; bibliography; index)

+++++

35 of 41 people found the following review helpful.
Other reviewers seem to miss the point
By Derek J
In writing this book Dr. Andreasen had to consider her audience. This
book was written for a general audience, not the academic or medical community.
Therefore it must appeal to that end both in language and length of text.
I think that Dr. Andreasen is successful in her anecdotal approach to
writing this book. It keeps things interesting for those of us who might
have trouble sifting through the thousands and thousands of articles
published about creativity in medical or psychology journals. If you are looking for a summary of everything that has been written on the topic, you are looking for another book....and very likely one that would not be of much interest to a general audience.
Why anyone would expect a book that is obviously written for most
moderately educated people to be so conclusive, especially at this stage
in neuroscience, is beyond me. If one were to try to cover all aspects of
how people are creative, it would likely be longer than all of wikipedia.
I am an artist. For this book, I used a method usually reserved for viewing art, and
that is, assume everything is intentional. If the painter gives Mary a
long neck, it's not that he or she doesn't know how to paint a neck. It is because the painter is trying to emphasize something about the neck. Being a PhD in
English, I would gather that Dr. Andreasen knows a thing or two about
writing well. Being an accomplished scientist in addition, she also has an amazing capacity to make difficult topics easy to understand. Perhaps this skill-one that is quite rare in highly credentialed scholars like Dr. Andreasen-is one reason that several reviewers have perceived the book to be "too simple."
In this book Dr. Andreasen has selectively chosen some aspects of creativity the aspects of creativity that she finds most interesting. The most challenging aspect is the neuroscience of creativity. How does the brain actually work when it develops original ideas? The book is a tour de force in this respect. Few others could have written about this topic in such a knowledgeable but interesting and approachable way.

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Minggu, 06 Juli 2014

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Deadly Wrong: An Urban Fantasy Novella (Preternatural Affairs Book 5), by SM Reine

Isobel Stonecrow’s life has an expiration date: One month, two weeks, four days, and six hours remaining.

Not that she’s counting.

When she signed a contract giving her soul and memories to a demon named Ander, she didn’t expect that she would ever have to face termination. But now Ander is dead and she’ll be following suit if she can’t find a way to dissolve the deal.

Too bad she can’t remember anything from the time before she signed the contract.

Fritz Friederling, a billionaire demon hunter who owns several businesses in Hell, isn’t ready to give up on Isobel. But she isn’t sure that working with Fritz is better than dying. She doesn’t know much about her past life, but she knows that she signed Ander’s contract for a reason—and that getting away from Fritz was a significant part of it.

Escaping her contract means remembering the life that she chose to forget. And it means trusting Fritz Friederling, who Isobel fears might be the biggest danger of all…

  • Sales Rank: #35617 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2014-11-05
  • Released on: 2014-11-05
  • Format: Kindle eBook

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Great read!
By Carrie Williams
I received a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review.

This was a really wonderful addition in a rapidly growing story. While the previous books in this series have revolved around Cesar, this book was completely Cesar-free and revolved around Isobel and Fritz. Looking for answers about her past? This book is filled with them!

We pick up a few months after Isobel got her memories back. They’re still trickling in but she now knows enough to be straddling the two “selves.” She’s almost at the end of her contracted “zombie” time when she finally reconnects with Fritz. While I was firmly on Team Cesar for a little bit, I can definitely say that I’m over him (as, it appears, Isobel is too). Now on Team Fritz, I was happy that this book was really just about the two of them. Their relationship (or relationships?) is anything but simple, filled with all sorts of revelations throughout the book. Yes, there’s some romance and some good stuff, but this book still bears the stamp of a nice and gritty urban fantasy.

For fans of other books by this author, we get some nice little nods to things you know already (but other readers might not). There’s some good foreshadowing and setups happening along the way that I can appreciate fully. I don’t think it would hurt if you didn’t read any other series. It might be nice to re-read after you do, though (and you should completely read the other stories). This book really “rebooted” this series for me. Cesar was really starting to grate on me and I wasn’t quite sure I wanted to be in his head any more. While there is a distinct lack of his sarcastic wit, I didn’t miss it at all. This book was a fun and quick read that left me completely satisfied.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The worst part of it all
By Terry Mitchell
Isobel is in trouble. Her body is dying and she is running out of time to find a way to refuse the effects. This is when she finally allows her husband Fritz to finally help her. The worst part of it all, if she could only remember the details about the contract she signed she could probably help herself. Fritz takes her to hell to beg the higher powers for help undoing this contract from hell. The worst part of it all, escaping the binds of her contract will bring back all the memories she had blissfully forgotten of her previous life and the terrible things she did.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Nicely Written
By Pablon
I was not a fan of Fitz before the book (found him boring and had an annoying personality), and this book didn't help that at all, he's even more annoying than I thought. Despite that point, it was nicely written and made a great end to a branching story.

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  • Sales Rank: #13199368 in Books
  • Published on: 2008-01-26
  • Binding: Audio CD

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Philosophical Theories of Probability (Philosophical Issues in Science), by Donald Gillies

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability.
Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  • Sales Rank: #155741 in Books
  • Published on: 2000-10-20
  • Released on: 2000-08-24
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.21" h x .55" w x 6.14" l, 1.15 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 240 pages

About the Author
Donald Gillies is a Professor at King's College, London.

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6 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Informative and interesing disussion of probabilities from a philosophical point of view
By Zac
This is a wonderful book providing an introduction to the philosophical interpretation of probability.

It is very readable and avoids to a large extend jargon from scientific papers without being to casual. The organization follows a chronological order which allows to follow extensions and critics rather easy. The provided explanations could be sometimes deeps, but they are in general understandable. I guess if more information would be provided it would no longer be such an easy read losing one its attractive features.

I can recommend this book to anyone how wants to get a quick but through overview of this important question.

16 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
Partial synopsis
By Viktor Blasjo
Classical theory. Equal probabilities are assigned to two events whenever we have no reason to favour one over the other. Thus the probability for each face in a coin flip is 1/2 even if we know that the coin is biased (assuming that we don't know the outcomes of previous flips). This view of probability is epistemological rather than objective. This should not be a surprise since its proponents, notably Laplace, were determinists, which in a sense precludes objective probability altogether.

Logical theory. Keynes' version. Probability = degree of partial entailment = degree of rational belief. Probability is a "Platonic" entity, i.e., not defined in terms of the physical world, which can be perceived through "logical intuition." Probability is relative (to evidence and implicit background knowledge) rather than absolute. The classical principle of indifference is retained in this theory to get it off the ground, especially to determine prior probabilities. But this principle leads to paradoxes. I don't know whether a book I have not seen is red or not, so p(red)=1/2. But is the same way p(blue)=1/2, etc. This problem can be avoided by stipulating that the principle may not be applied to divisible classes (not-red, etc.). But the paradox remains in continuous cases. Suppose we have a mixture of water and wine about which we know only that there is at most 3 times as much of one as the other. Then the principle of indifference gives different probabilities for the identical events wine/water1/2. In fact, the paradox remains to some extent even in finite cases. What is the probability of a head and a tail in two coin flips? If one does not distinguish HT from TH one would say 1/3. But the divisibility criterion forces us to assign 1/4 to each of HH, HT, TH, TT. The problem is that this precludes Bayesian learning: if h is the hypothesis that the next flip will be H, and e is the sequence of flips so far, then p(e|h)=p(e) so by Bayes' theorem p(h|e)=p(h).

Subjective theory. Probability = subjective degrees of belief. This is determined through betting: the subject assigns betting quotients to possible outcomes of an event and is forced to commit to a bet without knowing the stake (which may be negative). The betting quotients are degrees of belief. It is a bit disturbing that this procedure depends on money; for example, one expects people to act differently with respect to huge bets as compared to tiny ones. It has therefore been suggested that the bets should be based on "utility" or "goods" instead of money, but this is obviously hard to make numerically precise. The assumption that betting quotients can be taken as conforming with the probability calculus is reinforced by the Ramsey--De Finetti theorem, which says that a set of betting quotients which violates the probability axioms are incoherent, i.e., Dutch-bookable. "The Ramsey--De Finetti theorem is a remarkable achievement, and clearly demonstrates the superiority of the subjective to the logical theory. Whereas in the logical theory the axioms of probability could only be justified by a vague and unsatisfactory appeal to intuition, in the subjective theory they can be proved rigorously from the eminently plausible condition of coherence. ... In addition, the subjective theory solves the paradoxes of the Principle of Indifference by, in effect, making this principle unnecessary ... In the logical theory, the principle was necessary to obtain the supposedly unique a priori degrees of rational belief, but, according to the subjective theory, there are no unique a priori probabilities. ... There remain, however, some problems connected with the subjective theory, and in particular the question of how probabilities which appear to be objective, such as the probability of a particular isotope of uranium disintegrating in a year, can be explained on this approach." In response "it could be admitted that the examples ... are indeed objective, and consequently that there are at least two different concepts of probability which apply in different circumstances" (Ramsey). Or "it could be claimed that all probabilities are subjective, and that even apparently objective probabilities, such as the ones just described, can be explicated in terms of degree of subjective belief" (De Finetti). This is done by appealing to the washing out of the priors under Bayesian conditionalisation. But washing out occurs only in simplistic situations; in effect, when picking balls from urns. Suppose that we have an urn with a million yellow balls and one black ball; that we draw with repetition; and that we first draw the black ball at the millionth draw. Bayesian conditionalisation will have washed out most of the priors, but only at the cost of committing us to assigning an overwhelming probability to the next ball being yellow. Suppose now that the sun does not rise tomorrow. Will we then say that there is an overwhelming probability that it will rise the day after that? Surely not, because this is not like drawing balls from urns. In such a situation there is no longer any reason to think that priors will wash out. So sometimes people adjust their beliefs in such a way that priors wash out and sometimes they don't. Thus De Finetti's proposed solution of the problem of subjectivity seems backwards and question-begging, in that it identifies as the cause of objectivity a mere symptom of it.

Frequency theory. Von Mises' version. Probability is an empirical science. Start with the phenomena. The object of study is sequences. These satisfy two laws: first, relative frequencies have limits, and second, the progression is random (which Von Mises defines as immune against any betting system, or, equivalently, that limits of relative frequencies are the same for any subsequence). Probabilities are defined as the limits of relative frequencies. So only things that come in sequences can have probabilities, which obviously excludes many common uses of the concept of probability. According to Von Mises, this is a healthy correction of confused pre-scientific usage of the word (cf. the concept of work). De Finetti complained that "If an essential philosophical value is attributed to probability theory, it can only be by assigning to it the task of deepening, explaining or justifying the reasoning by induction. This is not done by Von Mises." Another objection is that since probabilities are limits they are theoretical fictions with no tangible connection to any finite set of data. Von Mises took this to be a harmless idealisation analogous to numerous similar idealisations in physics. De Finetti objected that the analogy is not complete: in physics the idealisation is meant to mediate between an exact theory and imperfect data; in Von Mieses' theory it is the theory itself that is inexact (i.e., says nothing about finite samples).

Propensity theory. Popper introduced the propensity theory by asking: can there be objective probabilities for single events? One motivation was that this seemed to him necessary in quantum mechanics. He first suggested that this could be done by a simple extension of the frequency theory: the probability of a single event is defined as its probability in the sequence in which it occurs. But this clearly has undesirable consequences if the sequence is made up of, e.g., throws with biased and unbiased dice interspersed. To avoid this the concept of sequence can be restricted to sequence of repeated experiments, i.e., sequence characterised by its generating conditions. "Yet, if we look more closely at this apparently slight modification, then we find that it amounts to a transition from the frequency interpretation to the propensity interpretation," for it forces us "to visualise the conditions as endowed with a tendency or disposition, or propensity, to produce sequences whose frequencies are equal to the probabilities; which is precisely what the propensity interpretation asserts" (Popper). Thus the propensity theory gives up Von Mieses' operationalist definition of probability, while maintaining his view that probability theory is about observable random phenomena and that probabilities exist objectively in analogy with, e.g., mass. However, Popper's original emphasis on repeated experiments seems to require subjectivity in the determination of the reference class, i.e., in the determination of which conditions are needed for something to count as a repetition of the *same* experiment. Popper and Miller later avoided this problem by taking propensities to be unique properties determined by the entire state of the universe. But such propensities are metaphysical and untestable. Furthermore, this notion of propensity invites the view that propensity is a generalisation of causation; as Popper put it: "Causation is just a special case of propensity: the case of a propensity equal to 1." But because probabilities have a temporal symmetry which causation lacks, this leads to Humphreys' paradox, e.g.: "Suppose we are given a set of probabilities from which we can deduce that the probability that a certain person died as a result of being shot through the head is 3/4. It would be strange, under these circumstances, to say that this corpse has a propensity of 3/4 to have had its skull perforated by a bullet." The paradox can be avoided by stipulating that event-conditional probabilities are not causal.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Jonathan Kane
Good, but not great book. Recommend combining this with other books on the subject.....

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People Risk Management: A Practical Approach to Managing the Human Factors That Could Harm Your Business, by Keith Blacker, Patrick McConn

The collapse of major corporations during the global financial crisis, major accidents, and strategic mistakes resulting from mismanagement, have highlighted the crucial role that bad decision making has in creating disasters.  People are at the core of corporate success and failure.  Researchers in behavioral psychology have discovered that individual persons and groups are not good at making decisions as they fall prey to human biases, giving rise to the term "people risk." 

Risk management experts Keith Blacker and Patrick McConnell provide a business-friendly introduction to behavioral psychology, explaining how biases, illusions, and conflicts of interest can lead board members, managers, and employees to make potentially disastrous decisions.  Using case studies and examples, the authors demonstrate how crucial people risk management is and how ineffective risk management can create crises.  They also offer practical tips and tools for changing the culture and structure of organizations to better align people risks with corporate values and provide advice on managing the roles and responsibilities of those directly involved in overseeing risk and people management.

  • Sales Rank: #3187918 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-04-28
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.50" h x .67" w x 6.75" l, 2.20 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 312 pages

Review
"People Risk Management by McConnell and Blacker is a book that has been sorely needed for some time. For too long risk practitioners, as a whole, have underplayed the role that people risk can have in an organisation. Given that the major events of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 were a result of people, both in senior and junior positions, making poor decisions for a variety of reasons, it is time that people risk is given much more prominence. And it's not just a matter of risk culture, as McConnell and Blacker successfully argue. More attention needs to be paid to making a more robust decision making process, especially at senior levels. For the practitioner, this book offers more than an overview of the risk and some case studies; a framework for managing people risk, and proposals for increasing the quality of people risk management from the Boardroom to the individual worker make a valuable resource. This is a book that I wish I'd written." (Frank Ashe Macquarie University)

About the Author

Dr. Keith Blacker is an expert in risk management with nearly thirty years' experience. A former lecturer at Henley Management College, UK, he has also served as a consultant to a range of major banking and insurance companies internationally.

Dr. Patrick McConnell taught at Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre (MAFC) in Sydney, Australia and at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland delivering masters level risk management courses. With over thirty years' experience in IT and risk management, he has been consulted by a number of major banks and corporations.

 

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A well-written survey of ways to think about Compliance
By Aaron C. Brown
The first point is that this book has nothing to do with risk management. The authors begin by defining their topic as "the risk of loss due to the decisions and non-decisions of people," or more simply, that "people should do the right thing and follow the rules that are laid down for them, but sometimes they don't." Of course, this is what everyone else calls "Compliance."

The authors are describing a danger and discussing how to minimize it. Risks are two-sided, and risk management is the study of how to select the optimum level, like a sports team gambling with aggressive tactics when behind, and using conservative defensive tactics when ahead. Risk is not good or bad, it's something you dial up or down to accomplish a goal. The authors are concerned almost only with one-sided uncertainties that you would never dial up (there are two brief discussions of upside in the latter chapters of the book).

There is a vibrant literature on people risk management. It addresses questions like how to encourage innovation while ensuring efficient execution by the book; how to take advantage of diversity in the workplace and offer employees flexibility, while keeping enough standardization that processes work; how to build teamwork without groupthink; and so on. It is a mathematical field drawing on neuroscience, behavioral game theory, and experimentation. You will not find any of that mentioned here.

Related to the issue above, the book focuses (again with two significant exceptions) on studying disasters and asking why they occurred. This is useless for risk. If you look at people who die of lung cancer, you'll find that many of them visited doctors, had lung x-rays, had chemotherapy and were smokers. That observation is not helpful. If you want to study risk, you have to go the other way, you have to look at smokers and non-smokers and see what happens to them. Assigning blame after a disaster is not risk management.

What the book does provide is a survey of about a dozen ideas for combating white collar crime, making sure employees follow legal and regulatory rules and avoiding disasters caused by people issues like poor communication, infighting or bad incentives. Most of these are written in consultant-speak -- lots of big words, heat maps, pyramids, charts with arrows; not so much clear instructions or falsifiable predictions. But having seen a few of these in the original, this book will save you a lot of time and aggravation it has slimmed the presentations down and translated them halfway into English. There really is some useful insight in some of these chapters, and some empirical evidence as well.

An example of the worst of the book is:

"Employing the ISO vocabulary (Guide 73), People Risk Management (PRM) is here defined as 'coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk (and in this context, People Risk)'"

Here you see a circular definition, that appears to be sourced to the International Organization for Standardization. But the referenced guide is only a dictionary, the authors just took the definition of "management" and appended "People Risk" to it. The quotes are misleading as the guide says nothing about People Risk, nevertheless it is cited nine times in the book for fake authority. And the passage also illustrates the book's overfondness for initialisms.

Then it gets worse. That quote is followed by:

"The key word here is coordinated; implying that People Risk Management is not itself a directing activity but one that assists others, especially the board and senior executive, to direct and control the organization's approach to People Risk."

So the entire definition above is upended. For some reason, the fact that the activity is coordinated means the People Risk Managers don't in fact direct or control anything as the original definition specifies, they're just advisors to the people who can pay the highest consulting rates. There's more circularity, we still have no idea what People Risk is (if you recall, that's what this passage is supposed to be telling us) but we do know the authors will not take responsibility for anything, they will merely assist in some nebulous function. Also note that the authors fail to use their own initialism even in the sentence immediately following its definition.

However, it quickly becomes apparent what's going on. The next sentence tells us that People Risk Management will be big and expensive, and require outside consultants. It turns out that its remit is not just people's behavior or decisions as their definition claimed, but Health and Safety (because people might get hurt), Human Resources (because Humans is another word for People?), Fraud (not a department in any company I know, but why not?), Financial Accounting (because some accounting judgments involve assessing risk?), Procurement (because it's managed by people?), Compliance (of course) and Legal (also concerned with controls and decisions). It turns out People Risk Management means poking your nose into anything in the company that has to do with People, Risk or Management; three well-chosen words for someone who wants to opine about everything but take responsibility for nothing.

On the good side, Chapter 4 has extensive and varied case studies, Chapter 8 has some interesting material that goes beyond enforcing the rules to discuss how to design organizations that avoid errors without sacrificing innovation and Chapter 10 is a solid account of traditional Compliance tools with some interesting extensions. The remaining chapters have nuggets of useful information, but few consistent veins, and a lot of dross.

Overall, I think this book is a decent overview of some academic and consultant research into the Compliance function. It won't teach you to be a Chief Compliance Officer, for that you need to know what the rules are and how to design policies. But it can help a Compliance professional think about how to enforce the rules and policies in positive ways.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Invaluable insights into people in the context of risk
By David Rorrison
This is a comprehensive review of that most important - and intangible - subject: people risk. It examines the factors that affect risk taking by both individuals and groups, including Boards, and considers a whole range of circumstances in which it went wrong and why.

The authors then use these learnings to consider what constitutes good risk-aware decision making and how to make it happen. They go on to examine healthy risk cultures, boardroom behaviours, and roles and responsibilities for effective people risk management.

An illuminating read!

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Rabu, 18 Juni 2014

[N534.Ebook] Fee Download Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

Fee Download Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

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Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford



Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

Fee Download Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

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Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

Taka must prove himself in a dangerous mission to become a ninja. Thrilling adventure from the author of the Young Samurai books

  • Sales Rank: #1945553 in Books
  • Published on: 2012-01
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.00" h x 5.00" w x .25" l, .15 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 51 pages

About the Author
Chris Bradford is a professional musician and songwriter. He began Judo at age 7, and has since trained in a variety of martial arts, including samurai swordmanship, and has earned his black belt in Kyo Shin Tai-jutsu, the secret fighting art of the ninja. His Young Samurai books are hugely popular and have been shortlisted for a number of awards. He lives in a small village in West Sussex.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Short but good!
By kevdubose
The book is priced like a full length novel, but it is a short story. I have read the young samurai books and loved them, but this seems to be just along the same story line. Anyway I would certainly buy a full length book about this character, but not another short story at $9.99. I suggest if you like his other books then give it a try, but I was expecting more.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A Very Good Read
By T. Tureson
--I received this book for free from NetGalley in exchange for an honest review. This does not affect my opinion of the book or the content of my review.--

I found this to be a quick fun read. The book definitely is geared towards the younger reader, say about a 3rd/4th grade reading level. So this book is a fairly short one, but the message sent through this book packs a pretty good punch. Taka as a young Ninja wanna be is desperate to advance to become a Ninja. Though due the fact that he failed the first time, and thanks to some bullies he is afraid he is not cut out to be a Ninja. But circumstances arise and Taka along with his friend Cho rise to the occasion, and prove that to do the right thing you don't have to be a Ninja. The message of not giving up and pursuing your goals no matter if you have a set back I think is a great message to send to kids, even if they can not see the message from the book that they are reading. This book is on my list to pass along to my 3rd grade daughter who I thing will also enjoy the story.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Marisol Aubrey
My son loves this series!

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