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  • Sales Rank: #13199368 in Books
  • Published on: 2008-01-26
  • Binding: Audio CD

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Philosophical Theories of Probability (Philosophical Issues in Science), by Donald Gillies

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability.
Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  • Sales Rank: #155741 in Books
  • Published on: 2000-10-20
  • Released on: 2000-08-24
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.21" h x .55" w x 6.14" l, 1.15 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 240 pages

About the Author
Donald Gillies is a Professor at King's College, London.

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6 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Informative and interesing disussion of probabilities from a philosophical point of view
By Zac
This is a wonderful book providing an introduction to the philosophical interpretation of probability.

It is very readable and avoids to a large extend jargon from scientific papers without being to casual. The organization follows a chronological order which allows to follow extensions and critics rather easy. The provided explanations could be sometimes deeps, but they are in general understandable. I guess if more information would be provided it would no longer be such an easy read losing one its attractive features.

I can recommend this book to anyone how wants to get a quick but through overview of this important question.

16 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
Partial synopsis
By Viktor Blasjo
Classical theory. Equal probabilities are assigned to two events whenever we have no reason to favour one over the other. Thus the probability for each face in a coin flip is 1/2 even if we know that the coin is biased (assuming that we don't know the outcomes of previous flips). This view of probability is epistemological rather than objective. This should not be a surprise since its proponents, notably Laplace, were determinists, which in a sense precludes objective probability altogether.

Logical theory. Keynes' version. Probability = degree of partial entailment = degree of rational belief. Probability is a "Platonic" entity, i.e., not defined in terms of the physical world, which can be perceived through "logical intuition." Probability is relative (to evidence and implicit background knowledge) rather than absolute. The classical principle of indifference is retained in this theory to get it off the ground, especially to determine prior probabilities. But this principle leads to paradoxes. I don't know whether a book I have not seen is red or not, so p(red)=1/2. But is the same way p(blue)=1/2, etc. This problem can be avoided by stipulating that the principle may not be applied to divisible classes (not-red, etc.). But the paradox remains in continuous cases. Suppose we have a mixture of water and wine about which we know only that there is at most 3 times as much of one as the other. Then the principle of indifference gives different probabilities for the identical events wine/water1/2. In fact, the paradox remains to some extent even in finite cases. What is the probability of a head and a tail in two coin flips? If one does not distinguish HT from TH one would say 1/3. But the divisibility criterion forces us to assign 1/4 to each of HH, HT, TH, TT. The problem is that this precludes Bayesian learning: if h is the hypothesis that the next flip will be H, and e is the sequence of flips so far, then p(e|h)=p(e) so by Bayes' theorem p(h|e)=p(h).

Subjective theory. Probability = subjective degrees of belief. This is determined through betting: the subject assigns betting quotients to possible outcomes of an event and is forced to commit to a bet without knowing the stake (which may be negative). The betting quotients are degrees of belief. It is a bit disturbing that this procedure depends on money; for example, one expects people to act differently with respect to huge bets as compared to tiny ones. It has therefore been suggested that the bets should be based on "utility" or "goods" instead of money, but this is obviously hard to make numerically precise. The assumption that betting quotients can be taken as conforming with the probability calculus is reinforced by the Ramsey--De Finetti theorem, which says that a set of betting quotients which violates the probability axioms are incoherent, i.e., Dutch-bookable. "The Ramsey--De Finetti theorem is a remarkable achievement, and clearly demonstrates the superiority of the subjective to the logical theory. Whereas in the logical theory the axioms of probability could only be justified by a vague and unsatisfactory appeal to intuition, in the subjective theory they can be proved rigorously from the eminently plausible condition of coherence. ... In addition, the subjective theory solves the paradoxes of the Principle of Indifference by, in effect, making this principle unnecessary ... In the logical theory, the principle was necessary to obtain the supposedly unique a priori degrees of rational belief, but, according to the subjective theory, there are no unique a priori probabilities. ... There remain, however, some problems connected with the subjective theory, and in particular the question of how probabilities which appear to be objective, such as the probability of a particular isotope of uranium disintegrating in a year, can be explained on this approach." In response "it could be admitted that the examples ... are indeed objective, and consequently that there are at least two different concepts of probability which apply in different circumstances" (Ramsey). Or "it could be claimed that all probabilities are subjective, and that even apparently objective probabilities, such as the ones just described, can be explicated in terms of degree of subjective belief" (De Finetti). This is done by appealing to the washing out of the priors under Bayesian conditionalisation. But washing out occurs only in simplistic situations; in effect, when picking balls from urns. Suppose that we have an urn with a million yellow balls and one black ball; that we draw with repetition; and that we first draw the black ball at the millionth draw. Bayesian conditionalisation will have washed out most of the priors, but only at the cost of committing us to assigning an overwhelming probability to the next ball being yellow. Suppose now that the sun does not rise tomorrow. Will we then say that there is an overwhelming probability that it will rise the day after that? Surely not, because this is not like drawing balls from urns. In such a situation there is no longer any reason to think that priors will wash out. So sometimes people adjust their beliefs in such a way that priors wash out and sometimes they don't. Thus De Finetti's proposed solution of the problem of subjectivity seems backwards and question-begging, in that it identifies as the cause of objectivity a mere symptom of it.

Frequency theory. Von Mises' version. Probability is an empirical science. Start with the phenomena. The object of study is sequences. These satisfy two laws: first, relative frequencies have limits, and second, the progression is random (which Von Mises defines as immune against any betting system, or, equivalently, that limits of relative frequencies are the same for any subsequence). Probabilities are defined as the limits of relative frequencies. So only things that come in sequences can have probabilities, which obviously excludes many common uses of the concept of probability. According to Von Mises, this is a healthy correction of confused pre-scientific usage of the word (cf. the concept of work). De Finetti complained that "If an essential philosophical value is attributed to probability theory, it can only be by assigning to it the task of deepening, explaining or justifying the reasoning by induction. This is not done by Von Mises." Another objection is that since probabilities are limits they are theoretical fictions with no tangible connection to any finite set of data. Von Mises took this to be a harmless idealisation analogous to numerous similar idealisations in physics. De Finetti objected that the analogy is not complete: in physics the idealisation is meant to mediate between an exact theory and imperfect data; in Von Mieses' theory it is the theory itself that is inexact (i.e., says nothing about finite samples).

Propensity theory. Popper introduced the propensity theory by asking: can there be objective probabilities for single events? One motivation was that this seemed to him necessary in quantum mechanics. He first suggested that this could be done by a simple extension of the frequency theory: the probability of a single event is defined as its probability in the sequence in which it occurs. But this clearly has undesirable consequences if the sequence is made up of, e.g., throws with biased and unbiased dice interspersed. To avoid this the concept of sequence can be restricted to sequence of repeated experiments, i.e., sequence characterised by its generating conditions. "Yet, if we look more closely at this apparently slight modification, then we find that it amounts to a transition from the frequency interpretation to the propensity interpretation," for it forces us "to visualise the conditions as endowed with a tendency or disposition, or propensity, to produce sequences whose frequencies are equal to the probabilities; which is precisely what the propensity interpretation asserts" (Popper). Thus the propensity theory gives up Von Mieses' operationalist definition of probability, while maintaining his view that probability theory is about observable random phenomena and that probabilities exist objectively in analogy with, e.g., mass. However, Popper's original emphasis on repeated experiments seems to require subjectivity in the determination of the reference class, i.e., in the determination of which conditions are needed for something to count as a repetition of the *same* experiment. Popper and Miller later avoided this problem by taking propensities to be unique properties determined by the entire state of the universe. But such propensities are metaphysical and untestable. Furthermore, this notion of propensity invites the view that propensity is a generalisation of causation; as Popper put it: "Causation is just a special case of propensity: the case of a propensity equal to 1." But because probabilities have a temporal symmetry which causation lacks, this leads to Humphreys' paradox, e.g.: "Suppose we are given a set of probabilities from which we can deduce that the probability that a certain person died as a result of being shot through the head is 3/4. It would be strange, under these circumstances, to say that this corpse has a propensity of 3/4 to have had its skull perforated by a bullet." The paradox can be avoided by stipulating that event-conditional probabilities are not causal.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Jonathan Kane
Good, but not great book. Recommend combining this with other books on the subject.....

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Kamis, 19 Juni 2014

[G823.Ebook] Get Free Ebook People Risk Management: A Practical Approach to Managing the Human Factors That Could Harm Your Business, by Keith Blacker, Patrick McConn

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People Risk Management: A Practical Approach to Managing the Human Factors That Could Harm Your Business, by Keith Blacker, Patrick McConn

The collapse of major corporations during the global financial crisis, major accidents, and strategic mistakes resulting from mismanagement, have highlighted the crucial role that bad decision making has in creating disasters.  People are at the core of corporate success and failure.  Researchers in behavioral psychology have discovered that individual persons and groups are not good at making decisions as they fall prey to human biases, giving rise to the term "people risk." 

Risk management experts Keith Blacker and Patrick McConnell provide a business-friendly introduction to behavioral psychology, explaining how biases, illusions, and conflicts of interest can lead board members, managers, and employees to make potentially disastrous decisions.  Using case studies and examples, the authors demonstrate how crucial people risk management is and how ineffective risk management can create crises.  They also offer practical tips and tools for changing the culture and structure of organizations to better align people risks with corporate values and provide advice on managing the roles and responsibilities of those directly involved in overseeing risk and people management.

  • Sales Rank: #3187918 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-04-28
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.50" h x .67" w x 6.75" l, 2.20 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 312 pages

Review
"People Risk Management by McConnell and Blacker is a book that has been sorely needed for some time. For too long risk practitioners, as a whole, have underplayed the role that people risk can have in an organisation. Given that the major events of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 were a result of people, both in senior and junior positions, making poor decisions for a variety of reasons, it is time that people risk is given much more prominence. And it's not just a matter of risk culture, as McConnell and Blacker successfully argue. More attention needs to be paid to making a more robust decision making process, especially at senior levels. For the practitioner, this book offers more than an overview of the risk and some case studies; a framework for managing people risk, and proposals for increasing the quality of people risk management from the Boardroom to the individual worker make a valuable resource. This is a book that I wish I'd written." (Frank Ashe Macquarie University)

About the Author

Dr. Keith Blacker is an expert in risk management with nearly thirty years' experience. A former lecturer at Henley Management College, UK, he has also served as a consultant to a range of major banking and insurance companies internationally.

Dr. Patrick McConnell taught at Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre (MAFC) in Sydney, Australia and at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland delivering masters level risk management courses. With over thirty years' experience in IT and risk management, he has been consulted by a number of major banks and corporations.

 

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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A well-written survey of ways to think about Compliance
By Aaron C. Brown
The first point is that this book has nothing to do with risk management. The authors begin by defining their topic as "the risk of loss due to the decisions and non-decisions of people," or more simply, that "people should do the right thing and follow the rules that are laid down for them, but sometimes they don't." Of course, this is what everyone else calls "Compliance."

The authors are describing a danger and discussing how to minimize it. Risks are two-sided, and risk management is the study of how to select the optimum level, like a sports team gambling with aggressive tactics when behind, and using conservative defensive tactics when ahead. Risk is not good or bad, it's something you dial up or down to accomplish a goal. The authors are concerned almost only with one-sided uncertainties that you would never dial up (there are two brief discussions of upside in the latter chapters of the book).

There is a vibrant literature on people risk management. It addresses questions like how to encourage innovation while ensuring efficient execution by the book; how to take advantage of diversity in the workplace and offer employees flexibility, while keeping enough standardization that processes work; how to build teamwork without groupthink; and so on. It is a mathematical field drawing on neuroscience, behavioral game theory, and experimentation. You will not find any of that mentioned here.

Related to the issue above, the book focuses (again with two significant exceptions) on studying disasters and asking why they occurred. This is useless for risk. If you look at people who die of lung cancer, you'll find that many of them visited doctors, had lung x-rays, had chemotherapy and were smokers. That observation is not helpful. If you want to study risk, you have to go the other way, you have to look at smokers and non-smokers and see what happens to them. Assigning blame after a disaster is not risk management.

What the book does provide is a survey of about a dozen ideas for combating white collar crime, making sure employees follow legal and regulatory rules and avoiding disasters caused by people issues like poor communication, infighting or bad incentives. Most of these are written in consultant-speak -- lots of big words, heat maps, pyramids, charts with arrows; not so much clear instructions or falsifiable predictions. But having seen a few of these in the original, this book will save you a lot of time and aggravation it has slimmed the presentations down and translated them halfway into English. There really is some useful insight in some of these chapters, and some empirical evidence as well.

An example of the worst of the book is:

"Employing the ISO vocabulary (Guide 73), People Risk Management (PRM) is here defined as 'coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk (and in this context, People Risk)'"

Here you see a circular definition, that appears to be sourced to the International Organization for Standardization. But the referenced guide is only a dictionary, the authors just took the definition of "management" and appended "People Risk" to it. The quotes are misleading as the guide says nothing about People Risk, nevertheless it is cited nine times in the book for fake authority. And the passage also illustrates the book's overfondness for initialisms.

Then it gets worse. That quote is followed by:

"The key word here is coordinated; implying that People Risk Management is not itself a directing activity but one that assists others, especially the board and senior executive, to direct and control the organization's approach to People Risk."

So the entire definition above is upended. For some reason, the fact that the activity is coordinated means the People Risk Managers don't in fact direct or control anything as the original definition specifies, they're just advisors to the people who can pay the highest consulting rates. There's more circularity, we still have no idea what People Risk is (if you recall, that's what this passage is supposed to be telling us) but we do know the authors will not take responsibility for anything, they will merely assist in some nebulous function. Also note that the authors fail to use their own initialism even in the sentence immediately following its definition.

However, it quickly becomes apparent what's going on. The next sentence tells us that People Risk Management will be big and expensive, and require outside consultants. It turns out that its remit is not just people's behavior or decisions as their definition claimed, but Health and Safety (because people might get hurt), Human Resources (because Humans is another word for People?), Fraud (not a department in any company I know, but why not?), Financial Accounting (because some accounting judgments involve assessing risk?), Procurement (because it's managed by people?), Compliance (of course) and Legal (also concerned with controls and decisions). It turns out People Risk Management means poking your nose into anything in the company that has to do with People, Risk or Management; three well-chosen words for someone who wants to opine about everything but take responsibility for nothing.

On the good side, Chapter 4 has extensive and varied case studies, Chapter 8 has some interesting material that goes beyond enforcing the rules to discuss how to design organizations that avoid errors without sacrificing innovation and Chapter 10 is a solid account of traditional Compliance tools with some interesting extensions. The remaining chapters have nuggets of useful information, but few consistent veins, and a lot of dross.

Overall, I think this book is a decent overview of some academic and consultant research into the Compliance function. It won't teach you to be a Chief Compliance Officer, for that you need to know what the rules are and how to design policies. But it can help a Compliance professional think about how to enforce the rules and policies in positive ways.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Invaluable insights into people in the context of risk
By David Rorrison
This is a comprehensive review of that most important - and intangible - subject: people risk. It examines the factors that affect risk taking by both individuals and groups, including Boards, and considers a whole range of circumstances in which it went wrong and why.

The authors then use these learnings to consider what constitutes good risk-aware decision making and how to make it happen. They go on to examine healthy risk cultures, boardroom behaviours, and roles and responsibilities for effective people risk management.

An illuminating read!

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Rabu, 18 Juni 2014

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Ninja: First Mission, by Chris Bradford

Taka must prove himself in a dangerous mission to become a ninja. Thrilling adventure from the author of the Young Samurai books

  • Sales Rank: #1945553 in Books
  • Published on: 2012-01
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.00" h x 5.00" w x .25" l, .15 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 51 pages

About the Author
Chris Bradford is a professional musician and songwriter. He began Judo at age 7, and has since trained in a variety of martial arts, including samurai swordmanship, and has earned his black belt in Kyo Shin Tai-jutsu, the secret fighting art of the ninja. His Young Samurai books are hugely popular and have been shortlisted for a number of awards. He lives in a small village in West Sussex.

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Short but good!
By kevdubose
The book is priced like a full length novel, but it is a short story. I have read the young samurai books and loved them, but this seems to be just along the same story line. Anyway I would certainly buy a full length book about this character, but not another short story at $9.99. I suggest if you like his other books then give it a try, but I was expecting more.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A Very Good Read
By T. Tureson
--I received this book for free from NetGalley in exchange for an honest review. This does not affect my opinion of the book or the content of my review.--

I found this to be a quick fun read. The book definitely is geared towards the younger reader, say about a 3rd/4th grade reading level. So this book is a fairly short one, but the message sent through this book packs a pretty good punch. Taka as a young Ninja wanna be is desperate to advance to become a Ninja. Though due the fact that he failed the first time, and thanks to some bullies he is afraid he is not cut out to be a Ninja. But circumstances arise and Taka along with his friend Cho rise to the occasion, and prove that to do the right thing you don't have to be a Ninja. The message of not giving up and pursuing your goals no matter if you have a set back I think is a great message to send to kids, even if they can not see the message from the book that they are reading. This book is on my list to pass along to my 3rd grade daughter who I thing will also enjoy the story.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Marisol Aubrey
My son loves this series!

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Senin, 16 Juni 2014

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  • Published on: 1900
  • Binding: Paperback

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Jumat, 13 Juni 2014

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Blood and Marrow Transplant Handbook: Comprehensive Guide for Patient CareFrom Springer

This updated and expanded edition developed by the Blood and Marrow Stem Cell Transplant team at Oregon Health & Science University Knight Cancer Institute features the latest medical management guidelines and standards of care for hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients.  Spanning the timeline from the initial consultation throughout the transplant process, this handbook includes indications for transplantation and donor selection, treatment guidelines for addressing complications during and after transplant, and recommendations for long-term follow up care. Concise, comprehensive, and easy-to-use, Blood and Marrow Transplant Handbook, 2nd Edition presents a multidisciplinary approach to information for physicians and advanced practice medical providers who care for transplant patients, and also residents, fellows, and other trainees.

  • Sales Rank: #622070 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-05-04
  • Released on: 2015-05-04
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.08" w x 6.10" l, 1.41 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 444 pages

From the Back Cover

This updated and expanded edition developed by the Blood and Marrow Stem Cell Transplant team at Oregon Health & Science University Knight Cancer Institute features the latest medical management guidelines and standards of care for hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients.  Spanning the timeline from the initial consultation throughout the transplant process, this handbook includes indications for transplantation and donor selection, treatment guidelines for addressing complications during and after transplant, and recommendations for long-term follow up care. Concise, comprehensive, and easy-to-use, Blood and Marrow Transplant Handbook, 2nd Edition presents a multidisciplinary approach to information for physicians and advanced practice medical providers who care for transplant patients, and also residents, fellows, and other trainees.

About the Author

Richard T. Maziarz, MD

Center for Hematologic Malignancies

Adult Blood and Marrow Stem Cell Transplant Program

Knight Cancer Institute

Oregon Health & Science University

Portland, OR

Susan Slater, MN, FNP-BC

Center for Hematologic Malignancies

Adult Blood and Marrow Stem Cell Transplant Program

Knight Cancer Institute

Oregon Health & Science University

Portland, OR

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Three Stars
By Dr mom
So basic good for for general practitioners interested in BMT

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
BMT Nurse
By Norman Swope
I have been a BMT nurse for four years, working with MM for seven. This is very thorough and concise, book is new, but was not wrapped, so cover was not perfect, but this is going into a backpack and will be used a lot.

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  • Published on: 1600
  • Binding: Hardcover

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  • Binding: Paperback

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Kamis, 05 Juni 2014

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Manhunt: From 9/11 to Abbottabad - the Ten-Year Search for Osama bin Laden PDF
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